Update to weekend winter storm

Here's a quick summary of the main changes to the forecast:

• Less snow forecast for Moses Lake and all points to the east, including Spokane, Cd'A, the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington.
• Stronger winds

Here was the snowfall forecast that was from our previous blog, made Thursday morning.

And here's the current forecast:
 

Comparing the two images, you can see that we've markedly cut back on the forecast snow for locations east of Republic and Moses Lake.  The Spokane metro area is now only looking at 2-3" of snow.  The majority of this would fall Friday night.  The real heavy snow threat continues to be in central Washington.  The forecast hasn't changed much on this.

Let's take a look at a few model forecasts for snow fall.  First, here's the GFS model:

 The GFS has 2.4" for Spokane, 3.5" for Moses Lake, and 4.5" for Wenatchee.

Let's take a look at the new GFS, known as the FV3:

The FV3 is similar to the GFS for Spokane, but higher snowfall for Moses Lake and Wenatchee.

Here's the 12km NAM forecast:

 The NAM is a little snowier, with 3.7" for Spokane, and a whopping 15.2" for Wenatchee.

There's a 3km version of the NAM as well:

 2.7" for Spokane from the 3km NAM, 10.5" for Moses Lake, and only 3.8" for Wenatchee.

 Now for those in Spokane who are hoping for no snow, there is a model run by the University of Washington that should make you happy:

As you can see, the UW-WRF actually forecasts no snow for the Spokane metro area, while still hitting the western Columbia Basin hard with snow.

Hopefully this gives you a feel for all of the different computer forecasts out there.  The general screaming message for snowfall is central Washington will likely see the most snowfall from this event, and the farther east you go, the less snow you're likely to see.  So just to repeat, here's the current NWS snow forecast:

But what makes this event more impressive and unusual is the associated cold wind.  Here is the wind speed forecast for Saturday afternoon:

Those kinds of wind speeds and dry snow will result in a lot of blowing and drifting snow, most notably for Moses Lake, Omak, and the Waterville Plateau.  Drifting snow will make some roads in the western Columbia Basin impassable on Saturday.  Driving on Highway 2 between Davenport and Waterville could be tough going.  For Spokane and the Panhandle, there won't be nearly as much snow, so blowing and drifting won't be much of a problem.

The winds will also cause biting cold wind chills.   

The cold continues for the next 2 weeks.  In fact, the Climate Prediction Center put out a Hazardous Temperatures Outlook on Thursday:

You can see that while they show cold weather for much of the northwestern states, they've circled the Inland NW with a High Risk of Hazardous Temperatures for Feb 15-21.  In their discussion, CPC said:

Even at the very end of Week-2 (Feb 21), the calibrated GEFS depicts a 30% chance that minimum temperatures will fall into the lowest 1% of the observed distribution, suggesting record or near-record low temperatures in eastern Washington.

 Winter has made quite an appearance this month, after a mild December and January.