Friday, July 8, 2016

Looking for summer?

With the cool and wet weather lately, some may be wondering what happened to summer.  While there have been some rather warm spells since April, the weather sure has taken a cooler turn.  Will this cooler weather last?  Let's take a look.

Right now, a large low pressure system is located off Vancouver Island, sending multiple waves of energy and precipitation into the region.  Here is the Infrared Satellite as of noon today.
Infrared Satellite Image from 19z (12 PM PDT) July 8th

This low has left some of the area lakes which are often packed with people enjoying summer recreation with a different scene, such as the picture below shows.

View looking NW over Coolin Bay  - 1046 AM PDT July 8th

So when will this low leave the area?  It will slowly migrate towards the southeast into Saturday sending another round of precipitation across the region.  On Sunday the low should track into northern Oregon giving the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Lewiston area the best chances for rain .  Here is the GFS model forecast depicting this scenario.

12z GFS model forecast for 18z (11 am PDT) Sunday, July 10th

Now, if you look at the map above you notice another low off the northern British Columbia coast.  Will this ruin our weather for mid week?  As it stands now, models show the low staying up there, but sending potentially a weaker system into the region around Tuesday as the graphic below shows.

12z GFS model forecast for 06z Wednesday (11 pm PDT Tuesday, July 12th)

So where is the hot and dry weather that July typically brings.  See the big blue "H" on the map above.  Typically this area of high pressure builds north from the Four Corners Region into the northwest at least to some degree.  Will it make it by next weekend? See map below...

12z GFS model forecast for 00z next Monday (5 PM next Sunday July 17th)
 If the latest GFS model has anything to say about it, doesn't look like it.  As you can see, the high gets displaced well to the east, with a large upper trough across the region for more cool and unsettled weather.  Typically this far out models have a hard time being right.  However other models such as the European (ECMWF) and Canadian (GEM) show a similar pattern setting up.

What does the Climate Prediction Center maps show out this far?  Here is their latest 8 to 14 day outlook.
Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook valid July 16-22nd shows elevated odds for cooler than normal temperatures

The outlook calls for elevated odds for cooler than normal temperatures.  And finally, what does the latest CFS model show for the month of July?  You guessed it, cooler than normal.

So, for those looking for prolonged periods of this... may have to wait until August.  

While July will likely finish cooler than normal, don't be surprised by a few warm days, but again prolonged hot weather is not expected anytime soon.