|500 mb pattern 2am Tue-5pm Tue|
|Latest 12 hr precipitation forecast 2am Tue-2 pm Tue|
|Previous 12 hr precipitation forecast for 2am Tue-2pm Tue|
We still highly suspect that whatever verifies from a precipitation standpoint will more closely resemble the top two panes showing a heavy east-west oriented band vs the more poorly defined precipitation blob in the lower two panes.
Since the forecast is nearing in time we can also use one of our favorite tools called the HRRR (a rapidly updating model that runs hourly and can ingest current weather conditions). Let's see what the latest run of it says. The loop below is a simulation of what the radar is expected to look like. Green and yellow shading indicates where the heaviest precipitation is expected.
|Radar simulation for Tuesday morning|
Now the largest problem remains is will the temperatures cool down enough to support snow. The models vary in this regard and there is a fine line as to whether or not snow can fall and then whether it will get heavy enough so it can accumulate on roads. The odds of rain changing to snow over the Inland Northwest look fairly good especially over Idaho and southern Spokane County and northern Whitman County. However a tougher question to answer is will the snow be able to accumulate on the area roads? If the snow gets heavy enough the answer is yes, however if not, most of the accumulations will occur on grassy surfaces. So once again lets look at the plume diagrams to see how much snow 27 different model runs produce over Spokane, Coeur d'Alene and Pullman.
|Spokane plume diagram shows snow totals ranging from 0.0 - 2.5" with an average around 0.3"|
|Coeur d'Alene plume diagram shows snow totals ranging from 0.0 - 5.3" with an average around 0.8"|
|Pullman plume diagram shows snow totals ranging from 0.0 - 3.5" with an average around 0.5"|
Generally speaking, these values are on par with what the models were showing last night, however with the band moving further to the north, the snow totals in Pullman are trending lower. Motorists are still urged to check the latest forecast before venturing out in the morning and be prepared for a potentially snowy commute. Here is our latest snow forecast.
|Snow forecast for Tuesday (issued 9 pm Monday )|
1145pm Monday Update....the band of precipitation was beginning to take form. Our confidence is growing the moderate to locally heavy precipitation band will develop. Still not sure if heavy snow will accumulate.
|1147pm radar imagery. Note heavier precipitation developing between Davenport and Ritzville.|