Monday, March 21, 2016

Is a significant snow event possible for Spokane,Coeur d'Alene or the Palouse Tuesday morning?

Although the weather of late has been quite wet, the overwhelming majority of the precipitation has fallen as rain (or melting snow) in the valleys of eastern Washington and north Idaho including the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area and the Palouse. That might change however as an unusual weather pattern materialises on Tuesday morning resulting in the possibility of significant snow. So what is the weather pattern which might lead to this unusual snow? To get significant snow in the valleys this time of year you need several things. First, you want to have a fairly strong upper-level trigger. In this case, we will be dealing with a slow moving upper-level disturbance or vorticity maximum.

500 mb pattern 2 am-2 pm Tuesday

The emphasis is on slow. The loop above shows the disturbance quite nicely between 2am-2pm Tuesday. The green area represents where the forecast model is placing the best moisture. Notice the feature also looks like a semi-circle indicating a tight circulation in the upper atmosphere which should lead to increased upward motion.

Another ingredient we like to see to enhance this upward motion is deep instability. This helps enhance the upward vertical motion between the ground and the upper atmosphere. So will the atmosphere be unstable? You bet. The orange and red shading indicates where we expect to see the most instability (however it's unstable everywhere across the region.
Lapse Rates through the mid-atmosphere 2am Tue
So couple the presence of the instability and the upper-level disturbance and here is where one model solution suggests we will see the greatest lift. Areas in purple and light purple are where the models expect to see the greatest ascent and thus the best potential for precipitation.
Upward motion through the mid-atmosphere 2am Tuesday

Finally, you need an atmosphere which is cold enough to support snow. This is the least confident part of the forecast. Model solutions are suggesting that the temperatures before the precipitation arrives early Tuesday will be above freezing, but then they slowly fall as the precipitation intensifies during the morning at least over a very small area (denoted in light or dark blue).

8am Tuesday Temperatures

So we have the ingredients in place for a heavy precipitation event (albeit fairly localized). Now the question is where will this band of precipitation set up and will it become heavy enough that it can produce accumulating snows in the valleys. That is a tough question to answer since there has been considerable model variability. What we can gather is more often than not the model solutions have depicted a northwest-southeast or west-east oriented band of precipitation similar to the two panes in top portion of the image below. Some of these amounts are quite impressive. The areas in purple show precipitation amounts above 0.75 inches and the red areas are showing more than an inch. So is it possible that most of not all this will fall as snow? It is certainly a possibility. 

12hr precipitation amounts forecast between 2am-2pm Tuesday
So just how much snow are we talking about?  Well here is a plume diagram showing 27 different model possibilities or solutions for the Pullman/Moscow area. While some of the models are hinting at a little more than a trace of snow, the most impressive solution is showing nearly 8 inches! The average snow amount from all the variations is just over 1" of snow.  For the Spokane area, the forecast is nowhere close to as snowy as for Pullman. The maximum snow forecast is around 2.25" but the average is around a quarter inch. That's a lot of variation, to say the least. 

Plume Diagram for snow for Pullman (Click image for larger view)

Plume diagram for snow for Spokane (Click image for larger view)

So what do we expect to happen? We are fairly confident we will see a band of moderate to locally heavy precipitation develop on Tuesday morning. Again the question is where will this occur and will the atmosphere be cold enough to support heavy snow? The other variable is will the ground be cold enough allow accumulations to occur on the roads? If the snow gets heavy enough (quite possible) we suspect the answer will be yes. Motorists are urged to prepare for the possibility of winter driving conditions for the Tuesday morning commute. Chances are the afternoon commute will be much easier as any threat of accumulating snow diminishes. Hopefully, as the event nears our confidence will grow as to where we expect to see the greatest risk of significant snows. 

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