One more shot of decent snow---followed by colder temperatures, again.

We can barely catch our breath between systems, but it looks like we will see a brief lull in the action.
 
First lets review what happened within the past 24-36 hours. Pay close attention to the totals over the northern Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana. Those totals are not erroneous. Indeed there were quite a few locations which received anywhere from 1 to 3 feet of snow over the past 24-36 hours. 

So are these values record breaking? We aren't 100% sure until we hear from the COOP observer in Bonners Ferry, but based on the current records we suspect there is a good chance.

So this was just the latest batch of snow...on top of what we have seen so far this historically snowy February. In many locations we have seen a top-10 snowiest beginning to the month of February. In addition, Spokane is already in the top-10 for the entire month (9th place) and Coeur d'Alene is in 4th place.

If you like snow and you love snow records, the upcoming weather pattern suggests our cold and snowy pattern is very likely to continue. Our break in the winter weather is expected to tomorrow with snow returning to the Cascades in the morning and spreading across the remainder of the Inland Northwest tomorrow afternoon and evening. The threat of snow will persist into Friday. So how much snow are we expecting this time?

Snow Forecast for Thursday morning-Friday evening

 This next system won't be strong in comparison to previous systems this month, but still fairly significant for mid-February system. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this system but for the Spokane and Pullman area, the models seem to be backing off on snow totals. Meanwhile it looks like the Cascades (and the Panhandle Mountains) will be the hardest hit portion of the Inland Northwest. There will also be a small risk of freezing rain across portions of the Columbia Basin and into the Spokane area, but amounts should be quite light and any which falls will likely occur after light snow falls, mitigating the impacts. The graphics below show the mean snowfall expected in the area from an ensemble of hi-res weather models.

Ensemble of Hi-Res model data for Spokane area. The newest solution is the red line, while the oldest is the magenta one. Notice each model run has been backing off on snow totals. The oldest runs showed around 4 inches of snow.

Ensemble model soultion for Pullman. Again the red line is the latest version and hints at 1-2 inches whereas older runs hinted at amounts around 5 inches.

Meanwhile confidence for heavier snow looks good in Wenatchee where there has been much better model consistency.

After this system goes through we are in store for another blast of cold air from the north.  This blast will result from the buckling of the upper level jet stream which will put strong ridging over Alaska and a shot of cold air arriving from the Yukon. It is expected to arrive sometime on late Sunday or Monday.

So how cold will it get? Perhaps not as cold as the last blast, but still very cold for this time of year with temperatures almost 15-20°F colder than normal. So how cold are we talking?
Here are the highs for next Monday.

Monday high temperature forecast.

Tuesday morning low temperature forecast

And the cold weather is likely to continue through most of next week. Below is the temperature forecast from the GEFS ensemble members. Notice nothing above freezing is expected.

Temperature for the Spokane area forecast by GEFS ensemble data. Suffice it to say the next couple days will be the warmest  in the area, followed by a week of cold. The thick black line is the mean forecasts while the other grey lines show all the ensemble forecasts.

With cold temperatures returning to the region any future systems we see after the weekend will undoubtedly deliver snow. How much is uncertain and there are no strong ones expected as of now but that is always subject to change. So when will this cold weather ease and return some normal or warmer than normal conditions to the region? Not anytime soon. Here is the 8-14 day outlook.

8-14 day outlook issued 2/12/19

Perhaps there is some hope after that however as model guidance from the end of February through the 1st week in March is hinting at ridging setting up off the coast and bringing us more west or southwest flow vs. the persistent northerly flow we've been seeing most of month. This is very subject to change, but at least there is a glimmer of hope for those with hopes of golfing and enjoying other springtime activities. Just don't hold it against us if this doesn't pan out accordingly.

CFS forecast for 2/26-3/5