|500 mb mean map 5/23-5/31|
So not bad. An average high around 70°F with rain expected on roughly 1 out of 4 days doesn't sound too terrible. But that's climatology and this weekend's weather could vary significantly from the norm. Why you ask? Well, let us take a look at the 500 mb pattern for this weekend to get an idea what sort of weather we might be dealing with. First off, here's a look at the weather for Saturday.
|GFS 500 mb heights for Saturday|
|500 mb pattern from 4 different weather models for Saturday|
|500 mb pattern from 4 different weather models for Sunday|
|500 mb pattern for Monday|
|Rainfall forecast for Saturday and Sunday|
Now that is a lot of rain, regardless of the time of year. If the precipitation were to materialize, it would equate to our wettest Memorial Day weekend since 1997 and the second wettest on record (since 1970). So what is our confidence level in this precipitation panning out at this point?
Another tool we can look at in addition to just a few deterministic model runs is from an ensemble forecast approach. This is where you look at multiple model runs (initialized from the same model) and try to gather where the forecast confidence in the precipitation swath is greatest. Using this approach, the news isn't great either.
|NAEFS/GEFS Ensemble precipitation amounts for the 48 hrs ending Sunday Afternoon|
Now, if the rain does materialize, what impact will this have on our temperatures?
|7-day Spokane Forecast|
|7-day temperature meteogram for Spokane|
Stay tuned to later forecasts this week to see how wet this weekend might really get. In the meantime, you might want to procure yourself one of these if you have camping plans this weekend.