Friday, October 29, 2021

Does it seem like it's getting windier in the Inland NW?


One comment we've heard a fair amount is how windy it's been.  And people aren't just talking about the windstorms of Jan 13th and Mar 28th.  It just seems like there's wind every day.  "Oh great, just what we need.  More wind."  So has it really been windier than normal?  Does the data back up our perceptions?  If so, what is the reason for it?  And is this a trend we can expect to continue?  OK, lots of questions, so let's see if we can provide some answers.

First, we have to start with a caveat, namely, that archives of wind data don't go back nearly as far as temperature records.  Thermometers are fairly inexpensive and have been in widespread use for a long time.  As such, temperature records in the Inland Northwest go back into the early 20th century, and at some locations (like Spokane or Lewiston), go all the way back to 1881.  Unfortunately, wind anemometers (those spinning cups used to measure wind speed) are much newer to the scene of weather measurements, and generally they've only been found at airports.  So wind records are much less plentiful both in location and time.  Even so, we'll use what we have and try to draw some conclusions.

Has it been windier than normal this year?


To hopefully answer this question, we gathered all of the wind data we could find at a few different locations in the region.  As with most data studies, there's a couple of ways to slice and dice the data.  With wind, it really comes down to two types of measurements: the average wind over the entire day, and the peak wind gust of the day.  They're obviously related to each other, but not the same.  A thunderstorm can create a 50 mph gust on an otherwise calm day.  Or a steady 25 mph wind can blow all day without ever gusting much over 30 mph.  Which day is windier?  So we'll try to look at both measurements to glean our answers.

First we'll start at Spokane, mainly because it has the longest data record.  Peak wind gust observations for Spokane go back to 1969, while daily average wind speeds started in 1984.  

We'll start by looking at the number of days each year where the wind gusted to 50 mph or more.  


Looks like just about every year has 1 to 3 events with wind gusts over 50 mph.  And 2020-21 was no different, with a total of 3 events.  Notice, though, that there have been years with a few more windy days in Spokane.  2011-12 had 5 such days.  And looking back much further, the winter/spring of 1970-71 had 6 days with 50 mph or more, and 1971-72 had a rather amazing 12 such days.  

So let's bring it down a notch, and look at days with gusts of 40 mph or higher.  (The orange line is average of the previous 5 years)


  
Now we start to see a slightly different pattern.  1971-72 still tops the list, but there are now several other years that had a lot of windy days (greater than 40 mph gust).  1988-89 as well as 1989-90 were rather windy years in Spokane.  But then there seems to be a lull in the wind for Spokane for the 1990s and early 2000s.  Since 2005 however, the windy days have returned.  More recently, the >40mph days in 2020-21 totaled more than any year since 2013-2014.  So from that standpoint, yes, 2020-21 was winder than recent years.  But it certainly wasn't the windiest ever.

When we lower it down to 35 mph, things become a little more interesting.




Now, the really windy years of the early 1970s don't show up as well.  In fact, the top winters are now the 1988-89, 2013-14, and our current 2020-21.  So while some years may have a few really windy days (like 1971-72), they may not have many other windy days during the year.  Meanwhile, other years may have a number of days over 35 or 40 mph, but few if any over 50 mph.

Peak gusts don't always give a good indication of a windy day.  A thunderstorm or shower can cause a strong wind that lasts only an hour in an otherwise calm day.  Average wind looks at all hours of the day and averages them.  Below is the number of days in Spokane where the average wind speed was greater than 15 mph.



Similar to our results from looking at peak gusts, the 2020-21 as well as the 2019-20 years have been windier than any year since 2011-12.  So yes, it has been windier in Spokane of late than for the past 10 years.  Still, we see even windier years in the late 1980s as well as 1998-99.  So it would be wrong to say that this past year is the windiest ever in Spokane, or even that there is a trend for windier years.

Let's expand our study a bit, and look at other locations in the Inland Northwest.  The >40mph wind gust data from Pullman is interesting.



The number of days with gusts >40 mph at Pullman this past year (2020-21) was higher than all other years, with the exception of 2010-11.   So for the folks in Pullman/Moscow, it was a noteworthy year for wind.  Or was it?  Here's the number of days with wind gusts >45 mph.


Now the past year doesn't look so windy compared with earlier years.  What gives?  This would suggest that yes, Pullman/Moscow had a large number of windy days (over 40 mph), but didn't necessarily have an unusual amount of very windy days (over 45 mph).  

Further to the south in Lewiston, we see a similar signal as at Pullman.  Here's the number of days with gusts >40 mph at Lewiston:



Again, like Pullman, 2020-21 shows up as one of the windiest years when viewed with this metric.  And here's the number of days with peak gusts >45 mph:


Still, this past winter was one of the windiest, but not the windiest year on record.

At Moses Lake, the story is a bit different.  Here's the number of days each year with gusts >40 mph.


2019-20 is actually the clear winner for this category, with 2020-21 similar to several other years.

For average wind speed at Moses Lake, the past few years aren't really anything exceptional, especially when compared with the 1998/99 winter (a very wind La Nina winter) and the 2001/02 winter.



So in summary, in some respects, yes, it has been windier in the Inland NW recently than over the past 10 years.  But it would be wrong to say that "it's never been this windy".  Clearly the data shows that there have been windier years in the past.

Saturday, October 16, 2021

Firestorm 1991

 This Day in History!

Today marks the 30th anniversary of the event knowns as "Firestorm" in the Spokane Area. This event was characterized by a dry spell that occurred from late August through early October. The fall rains were late to arrive with fuels crispy dry and able to carry fire very easily. The event itself was driven by a strong cold front that produced extreme southwest winds with numerous ignitions from downed powerlines. Multiple fires broke out that quickly overwhelmed initial attack as strong winds fanned flames all across the Spokane Area. In this blog, we will re-visit Firestorm: news articles chronicling the event, the antecedent conditions, and of course the meteorology.

"Northern Spokane County like war zone"

Here is a portion of an article courtesy of the Spokesman Review detailing the conditions that day.

Article courtesy of Spokesman Review

Below are a couple maps summarizing the fires across Northeast Washington and North Idaho, followed by a zoomed in look at the Spokane area.




A summary of various newspaper articles from that day showed
  • 114 homes destroyed
  • 2 fatalities
  • 50,000 acres burned
  • 80 fires
Lets shift gears and talk about conditions leading up to the event, beginning with total precipitation leading up to the summer of 1991.  Below is a chart of precipitation accumulations at the Spokane International Airport for the water year. Each water year begins on the first of October. The month of October is when we will see mid-latitude storm systems move across the United States and is a good starting point for determining precipitation accumulations over an annual cycle.

The brown curve represents the average precipitation accumulation for the water year in Spokane and the green curve is the actual precipitation accumulation that fell from October 1st, 1990 through the day of Firestorm. Taking a quick glance, it's evident that precipitation accumulations followed the normal curve very closely; however, taking a closer look, it's also evident that a dry spell set up from August into the first half of October. Zooming into this period of the precipitation climate record (black rectangle above) and we see this:


July and August are typically our driest months of the year. The average, or normal, precipitation curve shows this with less than an inch of precipitation usually for this summer period. Then this curve starts to take more of an upward turn around mid September into October as weather systems off of the Pacific Ocean begin to usher in precipitation and shift out of fire season. It's clear to see zooming into this period that this precipitation was delayed. At the time, August through October of 1991 was the driest on record with only 0.18" recorded at Spokane International Airport -- 1.66" below normal!

How about the winds on the event? The next series of graphics are surface analysis charts showing mean sea level pressure (MSLP) through the event starting from the early morning hours on October 16th, 1991 into the afternoon. Keep in mind that the winds peaked during the late morning hours.

At 2:00 AM PDT


At 5:00 AM PDT


At 8:00 AM PDT


At 11:00 AM PDT


At 2:00 PM PDT


The storm intensified through the day, dropping from 994mb (29.35") at 2 am PDT to 984mb (29.06") at 2 PM PDT.  The storm produced the strongest winds in the late morning when the low was in close proximity to Eastern Washington and North Idaho.  Here are the observations from Spokane International Airport during the event.

Spokane International Airport observations for October 16th, 1991 from 7 AM to 7 PM PDT

Note the wind/wind gust columns with a peak gust of 62 MPH.  Also note the visibility and remarks where smoke and dust reduced visibility to as low as a quarter mile!

Where were you 30 years ago today?  If you lived in Eastern Washington and north Idaho at the time, you probably still have memories of that day.  Of course there have been many more Firestorms since 1991 (Carlton Complex, Okanogan Complex, Cold Springs/Pearl Hill, etc), but today we focus on what happened on October 16th, 1991.