White Christmas?

As of the time of this writing (2 PM Thursday), the Spokane Airport was a mild 45F with rain falling, when the normal high is only 31F.  These mild temperatures sure are interfering with those dreaming of a White Christmas!  Well there is still hope that we will detail in this blog.

Let's begin with historical odds.  This map shows historical chances of having 1" of snow or more on the ground on Christmas Day.

 An interactive version of this map is available at this link.  It shows historical odds are 57% Spokane, 47% downtown Wenatchee, and 16% Lewiston.

So what about this year?  Let's begin with the snow that is out there now with this morning's 10 am snow analysis.

NOHRSC Snow analysis 10 AM PST (18z) December 20th, 2018

Wow!  Not only a lack of snow around our neck of the woods, but most of the US is free of snow cover.  Here is a more zoomed in map of our region.

NOHRSC Snow analysis 10 AM PST (18z) December 20th, 2018

So most locations outside of the mountains, Cascade valleys, and some valleys near the Canadian border need some snow, and soon!  What does the future hold?

Well a storm is forecast to track through the region Saturday night and Sunday as the GFS model shows.

12z Dec 20th GFS forecast of 500mb heights and 700-500mb Relative Humidity valid 4 AM (12z) PST Sun Dec 23, 2018

Looks like temperatures will start off cold enough Saturday night into Sunday morning for snow with the possible exception being the Lower Columbia Basin and around La Crosse and Lewiston-Clarkston Valley.  The I-90 corridor from Moses Lake to Ritzville will be near the rain/snow line. Here is the GFS forecast of precipitation type Sunday morning.

12z/20th GFS forecast of precipitation type/intensity valid 4 AM PST (12z) Sunday, December 23rd, 2018

So the potential exists for light to moderate snow accumulations for most locations Sunday morning.  But will it stick around through Christmas Day? And any more storms after Sunday?  Let's talk temperatures first.  Whether this snow sticks around will depend on how much falls as temperatures for most valleys will warm into the mid to upper 30s Sunday and Christmas Eve resulting in some melting.  Here are the forecast high temperatures for Sunday and Christmas Eve.

Not all that warm, but should see a little melting of snow for most lower elevations.  

So what about the weather on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day?   Another storm approaches but the current model projection from the GFS late on Christmas Eve take the precipitation mostly to our south across Oregon, southern Idaho, and California.

12z/20th GFS forecast of precipitation type/intensity valid 10 PM PST Monday, December 24th, 2018

This particular solution would give the Washington Cascades some snow as well, but other solutions take the storm further south like the Canadian model below.  This morning's European model is similar to the Canadian model.

12z/20th Canadian model forecast of precipitation type/intensity valid 10 PM PST Monday, December 24th, 2018

And here is the GFS model projection for Christmas morning.

12z/20th GFS forecast of precipitation type/intensity valid 10 AM PST Tuesday, December 25th, 2018

Models are trending further south with this storm, but this is still several days out and the track could still change so be sure to monitor latest forecasts.

To summarize, while there is a lack of snow out there now, light to moderate snow accumulations are forecast for most locations Sunday morning.  But expect some melting of this snow prior to Christmas Day.  We will continue to monitor the track of the storm that follows which is currently more likely to impact Oregon, California, and southern Idaho.

As always, forecasts are refined as we get closer so be sure to check our web site for the latest forecasts at this link

Parade of storms

After a quiet beginning to December, the pattern is about to change as a parade of storms track into the region.   This is good news for our mountain snow pack which is running behind.

This map should look much different in a couple weeks.  Let's take a look at the pattern going into the early next week followed by a more detailed analysis of the first two storms expected.

First system arrives today (Sunday) beginning in the Cascades late this afternoon.  While not much of a storm, we will call it Storm #1 for simplicity sake.  Then follows Storms #2, #3, and #4.  These will carry more precipitation as well as the potential for gusty winds.  The yellow lines on the maps that follow show a strong westerly flow across the Pacific Ocean into our region.  The green shaded areas show high moisture content which you will see over our neck of the woods for each storm.  Take a look. 

00z/Dec 9th GFS model forecast of 500mb heights and 700-500mb relative humidity valid 10 PM PST Sunday

00z/Dec 9th GFS model forecast of 500mb heights and 700-500mb relative humidity valid 4 PM PST Tuesday

00z/Dec 9th GFS model forecast of 500mb heights and 700-500mb relative humidity valid 4 AM PST Friday

00z/Dec 9th GFS model forecast of 500mb heights and 700-500mb relative humidity valid 10 AM PST Dec 16th

Several storms moving through will bring unsettled conditions.  You will notice the flow over our region does turn a bit more southwesterly with the last two storms which may bring slightly milder air.  The mountains will see LOTS of snow.  This mild/wet pattern may persist in the 8-14 day time frame per the latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center.

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook issued December 8th valid Dec 16-22

CPC 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook issued December 8th valid Dec 16-22

Sunday Night/Monday: Snow Timing and amounts

When will the snow start?  Let's begin with this afternoon (Sunday)

00z/Dec 9th GFS Forecast of Precipitation type valid 4 PM PST Sunday

Snow reaches the Cascades late in the afternoon spreading into Central Washington in the evening.

00z/Dec 9th GFS Forecast of Precipitation type valid 10 PM PST Sunday

Snow then moves into Eastern WA and North Idaho overnight. 

00z/Dec 9th GFS Forecast of Precipitation type valid 4 AM PST Monday

Snow becomes confined to far northeast WA, North Idaho Panhandle, and Cascades, mid to late Monday morning.

00z/Dec 9th GFS Forecast of Precipitation type valid 10 AM PST Monday

This should spell light accumulations for most towns.  Here is a look at our forecast issued Sunday morning.

NWS Forecast snow accumulation issued 3 AM PST Sunday valid through 10 AM PST Monday

Tuesday Storm: 
What about the Tuesday storm?  Looks like it will start off as snow for the palouse and most areas north of Moses Lake.

00z/Dec 9th NAM Forecast of Precipitation type valid 10 AM PST Tuesday

Milder air does surge north Tuesday evening, with snow changing to rain in Spokane.

00z/Dec 9th NAM Forecast of Precipitation type valid 7 PM PST Tuesday

Other models suggest a similar scenario for Tuesday but the forecast will continue to be fine tuned.  This storm has the potential for travel impacts especially over the mountain passes and northern valleys.  For the latest forecast updates, please check our forecast here.

Changes next week

After a quiet weather pattern this week, weather changes are on the way.  What kind of changes you ask?  Good question, let's take a look.

We will take a look at a few model solutions for next week but let's begin with today (December 4th).

06z/Dec 4th GFS model of 500mb heights and 250mb wind (image) valid 4 PM December 4th 

This is a pattern typical of El Nino.  The image shows wind speeds up near 30,000 feet MSL with green colors showing winds between 100-140 MPH and orange colors in excess of 140 MPH.  A split jet stream with the southern branch aimed at California and the northern branch staying to our north and east.  Although we are under a weak northerly flow which will bring our region slightly below normal temperatures.

A weak weather system may pass through Saturday for a threat of light snow or flurries.  More significant changes next week.  Check out the pattern for Monday, December 10th.

06z/Dec 4th GFS model of 500mb heights and 250mb wind (image) valid 4 AM December 10th

Noticed a much stronger, consolidated Pacific Jet Stream across most of the Pacific Ocean with a low pressure system off the west coast.  Light precipitation will be possible across Central and Eastern Washington into north Idaho.  It's still a little early to nail down precipitation type so keep checking the forecast for the latest updates as we are monitoring the potential for a wintry mix.

Now look at next Wednesday, December 12th per the GFS model.

12z/Dec 4th GFS model of 500mb heights and 250mb wind (image) valid 4 AM December 12th

Next Wednesday models show the jet stream stretching across all of the Pacific and aimed at Washington, Oregon, and California.  The center of this jet actually had some red colors in there with a maximum value of 225 MPH.  This may bring more significant precipitation to the region including mountain snow, with rain, snow, or a combination of both for the lower elevations.

And it's not just the GFS, here is the Canadian model.

12z/Dec 4th Canadian model of 500mb heights and 250mb wind (image) valid 4 AM December 12th

And finally, the European model.

12z/Dec 4th European model of 500mb heights and 850mb temperature (image) valid 4 AM December 12th

The image is a bit different on this graphic (850mb temperature) but you get the idea with the strong westerly flow noted across all of the Pacific.  So while next week is still a long ways out, the general model agreement gives a boost of a confidence to at least a pattern change.

The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center for precipitation agree with this idea with elevated odds of wetter than normal.

CPC 6-10 day precipitation outlook issued December 4th valid Dec 10-14, 2018 

CPC 8-14 day precipitation outlook issued December 4th valid Dec 12-18, 2018 

So after a generally dry period through this upcoming Friday, weather changes are likely to follow.

2018-19 Winter Outlook

It's that time of the year where many are asking what kind of winter we will have.  Many have already heard about this year being an El Nino winter and we will discuss this further.  Let's begin with what the El Nino Pattern typically looks like.

Now often during El Nino years the Pacific Jet Stream sends storm south of our region bringing wet weather to California.  Now the exact placement of this can be different from year to year with some years bringing wet weather up into the Pacific Northwest.  We will come back to this later.

So how strong will this El Nino be?  Well the Climate Prediction Center is favoring a weak event.  Here is the latest forecast from various models.

Nearly all model solutions are showing El Nino conditions this winter.

So with a weak El Nino event, you may be asking what happened in prior weak El Nino years.  That is a great question!  Let's look at six cases since 1950 including 1958-59, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15.  If we average the temperature and precipitation anomalies from these six cases, here is what we get:

Milder than normal in the west, and drier than normal in the northwest.  However looking at these maps doesn't give any insight to the variability that can occur.  So let's begin with temperature anomalies for each weak El Nino event.

As you can see, all six cases brought near to above normal temperatures, so no surprises there.  What about precipitation?

Quite a bit more variability.  The past three cases near or below normal while the 1976-77 winter was our "drought winter".  However 1958-59 and 1977-78 actually brought above normal precipitation.  The latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction fit well with history.  Higher confidence for near to above normal temperatures.  Lower confidence of drier than normal which is only slightly favored over parts of the region.

CPC Temperature Outlook for Dec 2018-Feb 2019 issued Oct 18 2018.

CPC Precipitation Outlook for Dec 2018-Feb 2019 issued Oct 18 2018.

So what about snow?  The milder temperatures typically brings below normal values to the lower elevations.  Here is the percent of normal map.

As you can see most towns receive between 65-80 percent of normal snowfall.  Now for cities not as sensitive to temperature who are often well cold enough for snow, higher values show up such as Republic (91%), Winthrop (96%), and Leavenworth (103%).  For an interactive version of this map, click here.

So does this mean most of the Inland NW will see below normal snowfall this winter?  Well the odds lean this way, but it is worth noting that some El Nino events prior to the 80s were snowy for some towns as the graphs for Spokane and Sandpoint show.

Spokane observed snowfall for weak El Nino events 

Sandpoint observed snowfall for weak El Nino events

Now while milder temperatures are favored, this does NOT mean we won't see any big cold snaps.  For example, the 2006-07 event brought a temperature down to -10F in Spokane.

Spokane Temperature data Fall/Winter of 2006-07.  Solid red line is record highs.  Solid light blue line is record lows. The dark blue lines represent observed temperatures.  The top brown line is normal high while bottom brown is normal low.  

Another important factor is that even in El Nino years, significant weather events can and often due occur!  The 2006-07 weak El Nino brought two wind storms.  The December event brought damaging winds to many areas of the Inland NW.  The January event brought a mountain wave wind storm to Wenatchee.

Even ice storms can occur, like the weak El Nino of 2014-15 in Leavenworth.

So in summary, a mild winter is likely with below normal snowfall in the valleys.  Precipitation is less certain.  And even if the winter as a whole finishes on the mild side, your town could be impacted by a short term significant weather event such as a wind storm, snow storm, ice storm, or even flooding.  Be prepared and keep informed of latest weather forecasts!

Trick or treat? - Weather outlook

Are you wondering about the Halloween forecast?  Will you or your kids get wet trick or treating?  How about temperatures?  Wind? Let's get to it!

First, we are watching a low pressure system south of the Aleutian Islands which is drawing up significant moisture northward from near Hawaii.

Infrared Satellite image from 11 AM PDT Monday, October 29th, 2018.

So will this moisture make it up our way?  Well its hard to tell from a still satellite image, so let's take a look at some model data.  First of all, let's see if this moisture plume is showing up in the models.

18z GFS initialization of 500 mb heights and 700-500 mb Relative Humidity valid 18z (11 AM PDT) Monday, October 29th, 2018

Good news!  The GFS model as well as the other models are picking up on this moisture.

Now, let's see where this model takes it.  Here is it's projection for Halloween.

18z GFS forecast of 500 mb heights and 700-500 mb Relative Humidity valid 18z (11 AM PDT) Wednesday, October 31st

Much of this moisture tops the flat ridge (noted by the H west of California) and moves across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho on Halloween.  But the entire day doesn't look like a washout at this time.  Let's take a closer look at when the best rain chances are.

We will take a look at a new set of model data called the National Blend of Models (NBM). This utilizes many numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.  If you want to know more about NBM, click on this link for more details.

So let's start with 5 am - 11 am Halloween

It looks wet Halloween morning for most of Eastern Washington and north Idaho as well as near the Cascades.  It is worth noting that the best rain chances for Omak, Wenatchee, and Moses Lake may arrive prior to 5 am (not shown here).

What about Halloween afternoon?  Let's see.

The best rain chances are near the Cascades, far SE Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle.

Now, for the time you really want, Halloween evening (Trick or Treat time)

This would suggest low rain chances and more likely a dry trick or treat for most of Central and NE Washington.  Pullman, Lewiston, St. Maries, and Kellogg area under a higher threat of rain.

What about temperature?  Here is the 6 PM temperature forecast from the NBM

It will be a little on the cool side with values mostly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.  These are very close to normal values for this time of year.

What about wind?

Winds do not look particularly strong, ranging from 5 to 10 mph for most areas.  The Palouse and areas near the foothills of the Blue Mountains in SE Washington could see slightly strong winds of 10 to 15 mph.  The mountains will be breezy.

Now we will continue to fine tune the forecast, please keep informed of the latest forecasts on our home page found here.